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November 2002
Virginia 5th District Congressional Race: Calculating the Spread
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Using ballots that are specific to their home-voting location, middle and high school students throughout the nation voted online in the University of Virginia Center for Politics' 2002 National Youth Leadership Initiative mock election, the largest online mock election in the country. Polls opened on Monday, October 21 and remained open through Friday, November 1.

Over 66,000 students in all 50 states registered to vote in the mock election.

In the Youth Leadership Mock Election, Meredith Richards received 48.13% to Virgil Goode's 50.16%, with a write-in of 1.71%.

"The Goode-Richards contest "is really one of the only competitive races," [Joshua J.] Scott [of UVa's Center for Politics]said.

Goode won the votes of 2,353 students in the Greene County-to-Danville area 5th District, or 50.1 percent, to 2,264 students who cast a mock ballot for Richards, or 48.1 percent.

The mock balloting may be closer than the real race on Tuesday because "the program started in Charlottesville and we have more schools in the city and Albemarle County," Scott said. "We had plenty of schools voting across Southside as well." " (Bob Gibson, The Daily Progress, November 2, 2002)

In my own travels, predictions by Democrats about Meredith Richards' percentage of the vote in the 2002 Virginia 5th District Congressional race have ranged from a low of 35% to a high of 52% and predictions by Republicans have ranged from a low of 25% to a high of 48%.

"The Goode-Richards race appears to be the most competitive contest for Congress in Virginia this year, said Larry J. Sabato, director of the UVa Center for Politics.

"That doesn't mean that it's extremely competitive," Sabato said. Most of Virginia's 11 House incumbents, if not all, appear likely to win by landslide margins if they have any competition at all, he said.

"Democrats decided it was pointless to challenge Sen. John W. Warner (R), so he is easing gracefully into his fifth term. There's no action in House races either, thanks to a protect-the-icumbents redistricting deal" (Election 2002, The Mid-Atlantic, The Washington Post, November 3, 2002).

"The technical definition of a landslide is 55 percent plus one," Sabato said. If an incumbent can win 60 percent or more of the vote, that generally guarantees that the challenger is not strong enough to come back for a future race, he said.

Richards, 61, may win at least 40 percent of the vote on Tuesday because she has run an energetic campaign with a couple hundred thousand dollars to spend, Sabato said. "In the 5th, you've got a solid 40 percent Democratic base," he said." (Bob Gibson, The Daily Progress, November 3, 2002)

Back in August, Meredith Richards' own poll showed incumbent Virgil Goode holding 58 to 31 percent edge, while Virgil Goode's poll showed him carrying the 5th District 60 to 28 percent (Lisa Provence, The HooK, October 24, 2002).

As of October 20th, Tim Thornton of The Roanoke Times reported that oddsmakers were calling Virgil Goode a 10-1 favorite (Tim Thornton, The Roanoke Times, October 20, 2002).

A Look at the Past

In 2000, [then Independent] Virgil Goode bested Democrat John Boyd with 143,312 or 67.4% of the votes to 65,387 or 30.7% of the votes. Independent J.S. Spence received 3,936 or 1.9% of the vote, while there were 70 write-ins [including 33 in Albemarle and 22 in Charlottesville] (Virginia State Board of Elections, November 22, 2000).

In Albemarle County, Virgil Goode received 8,210 or 57.7% of the vote to John Boyd's 5,697 or 40.1% of the vote. J.S. Spence received 284 or 2.0% of the vote, while there were 33 write-ins.

In Charlottesville, John Boyd received 6,811 or 54.6% to Virgil Goode's 5,314 or 42.6% of the vote. J.S. Spence received 317 or 2.5% of the vote, while there were 22 write-ins (Virginia State Board of Elections, November 17, 2000).

In 1996, [then Democrat] Virgil Goode bested Republican George Landrith with 120,323 or 60.8% of the vote to 70,869 or 35.8% of the vote. G.R. Wood received 6,627 or 3.34% of the vote, while ten were 104 write-ins.

In Albemarle County,Virgil Goode received 6,461 votes or 53.85% of the vote to George Landrith's 5,015 or 41.79% of the vote. G.R. Wood received 495 or 4.13%, while there were 27 write-ins.

In Charlottesville, Virgil Goode received 7,882 or 65.9% of the votes or of the vote to George Landrith's 3,643 or 29.99% of the vote. G.R. Wood received 554 or 4.56% of the vote, while there were 65 write-ins (Virginia State Board of Elections, November 1996).

Comments? Questions? Write me at george@loper.org.