The question about a draft actually deals with three specific issues:

1. Do we have enough forces to bring security and stability to Iraq?
2. Will this war of choice only be fought by the children of the working class who seek college funding to give them a shot at the American dream?
3. Are we using the National Guard and Reserves appropriately when we are deploying them repeatedly and projecting this continue for much longer than it would take to recruit and train active forces.

If we are going to stay in Iraq (and I oppose this) we will need at least 400,000 troops on the ground to bring peace and stability. Fewer than that will ensure failure and expose all our forces to much greater risk of death and wounding.

Assuming that we continue to face serious demands on our forces in places such as Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and the Sinai, and also face up to the reality that roughly 50% of our military has families, we will need at least 400,000 new troops. This will make possible longer intervals between deployments, return of the reserve components to our nation's reserve, and, I hope, some flexibility to respond to emerging serious challenges such as genocide in Sudan and an atomically armed hostile Iran.

If the promise of one year of a high priced college, and appeals to patriotism that only seem to be made to working class children, do not work, then we will have little choice but to go to a draft. Why should only those who join for a job, a chance at college, or because they are patriotic, be asked to sacrifice when no one else is? Why should we enforce stop losses on our reserve and active components when no one else is being asked to serve?

The continuous use of reserve forces will ultimately degrade that vital component of our national defense. It is poor public policy to alert for deployment a unit that will not be activated for six months in the future, and lock in all unit members (no matter what their enlistment calls for) until the end of what is increasingly an 18 month mobilization. The training required for most units being used this way can be provided in four months, if the government expands the active force.

A military draft that would augment our current active forces could have the following elements:

1. All residents turning eighteen years of age - male and female - would register for the draft.
2. A birth date lottery would determine the order a person would be called, depending on the needs of the military. Men and women would be called in proportion to the military job vacancies suitable for each gender.
3. Initial service would be for two years, but entry could be put off for up to four years, with one additional year of service required for each two years of postponement.

My web site (www.alweed2004.com) talks about a voluntary national service program that would provide college funding for a wide range of public service options. Such a program would include a military option.

Al Weed (electronic mail, October 15, 2004)