"A group of 20-somethings who were huddled around four computers at Democrat James Webb's campaign headquarters in Clarendon yesterday think they hold the key to determining Virginia's next U.S. senator.

The volunteers are extracting data, crunching numbers and directing an estimated 15,000 Webb workers to their 'get-out-the-vote' assignments between now and the Nov. 7 election.

'We got computer people who are totally geeked out to get things done,' said Josh Chernila, Webb's grass-roots coordinator. 'They can drill down by precinct, by age, by area, by congressional district. Whatever I say, the people here can do and direct people to where they need to be.'

A few miles away at Allen headquarters near Shirlington, Allen supporters are just as confident their skills will translate into hundreds of thousands of votes for the Republican.

'We certainly know the drill and know what we need to do,' said Juanita Balenger, Allen's Fairfax County coordinator, an Allen loyalist since his 1993 bid for governor. 'I have certainly built our contacts over the years and know how to reach people through the phone and e-mail.'

After weeks of expensive television ads and a fight over character, the close Virginia Senate race could hinge on which candidate does a better job getting his voters to the polls. Each side is amassing an army of supporters who will hit the streets and phone lines over the next week to persuade its supporters to show up Nov. 7.

Many of Webb's supporters, dozens of whom come from out of state, said they were drawn to the campaign by his early opposition to the war in Iraq. They are passionate, though relatively inexperienced in a statewide race.

Webb volunteers will be facing thousands of battle-tested Allen supporters who have been helping him win elections for more than a decade. In past campaigns, Allen referred to them as insurgents. This year, they are more like Allen's offensive line as the former quarterback finds himself in a tighter-than-expected race that could help determine which party controls the Senate.

Allen is relying on a surge of support from social conservatives, sportsmen, veterans and rank-and-file Republicans opposed to taxes from such areas as the Richmond suburbs.

Webb is counting on a large turnout in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia and among black voters, who make up about 14 percent of the electorate. Webb, a former Marine, is also reaching out to veterans and traditional Democratic voters in smaller cities and towns across the state.

Both parties poured millions of dollars into get-out-the vote efforts in last year's election for governor. Democrats were worried that Timothy M. Kaine would be swamped by Republican Jerry W. Kilgore's turnout operation.

With help from Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, Kilgore had almost 10,000 volunteers working throughout the year to identify 2 million likely GOP voters. But the Democrats at least matched Republicans efforts on Election Day, and Kaine won by 100,000 votes.

Webb's turnout effort will fall short of Kaine's, some Democrats say. Kaine, who started his campaign much earlier than Webb, spent almost $5 million to attract voters to the polls. Democrats are on track to spend about $1.5 million on Webb's behalf.

But Webb could benefit from Kaine's efforts, Democrats say. The governor's political staff has handed Webb a huge database of voters filled with information gathered last year.

For the first time, Democrats last year used 'micro targeting' to append market research data to the state's voter list, producing data that help identify who is likely to vote Democratic.

Unlike Kaine, Webb does not have a large pool of paid staff to help drive turnout. But Webb can probably count on President Bush's unpopularity to motivate traditional Democrats, several party officials said. And Webb has a following of committed and intensely motivated volunteers, they said.

'We are going to have an army of people walking neighborhoods all over Virginia, turning out our votes,' Chernila said. 'We know where the votes are, and we are going to have the resources to go get 'em.'

Webb's volunteers have started making telephone calls -- some in Spanish, Korean, Arabic and Vietnamese -- and knocking on the doors of their most likely voters. The volunteers follow up those personal contacts with direct mail.

Union leaders are also mobilizing in support of Webb. But union leaders say they got a late start this year, compared with their six-month effort last year in support of Kaine, because they didn't grasp until September that Allen could lose.

'We put everything together in 40 days [before the election] because we didn't realize we were a targeted state,' said Doris Crouse-Mays, secretary-treasurer of the Virginia AFL-CIO, which hopes to make personal contact with at least 50,000 union members before the election.

Allen's get-out-the-vote effort is modeled after the national Republican 72-hour plan, in which thousands of volunteers are organized for a three-day blitz of telephone-calling and door-knocking in support of their candidate.

The goal, GOP sources said, is to have one volunteer for every 50 voters identified as likely to vote for Allen. In the last three days, those volunteers will personally contact several hundred thousand likely Republican voters across the state.

According to the Republican National Committee guidelines followed by the Virginia GOP, the effort could boost turnout of Allen's most committed voters by several percentage points, enough to make a difference in a close race.

'Our effort is going to be better than Webb's because Senator Allen has a very loyal base that is very happy with him,' said Dick Wadhams, Allen's campaign manager.

Allen is also hoping for a strong turnout among social conservatives who support a proposed constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions. Many Republicans believe similar amendments on statewide ballots in 2004 helped Bush against Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass).

But a Washington Post poll last month showed the marriage amendment passing 53 to 43 percent, a much smaller margin than it passed in other states, and some say it might not give Allen the boost it gave Bush.

According to the Post poll, support from black voters is crucial to the amendment's passage. But the poll indicated that just 11 percent of African Americans support Allen.

'Black voters will vote for it, but they'll turn right around and vote for Webb,' predicted David Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington." (Tim Craig and Michael D. Shear, The Washington Post, October 31, 2006)