"Two Virginias will be voting Nov. 7.

The ballots in the U.S. Senate election will be counted statewide, but recent public polls suggest there is a widening gulf between the views of Northern Virginians and the people who live elsewhere, especially south of the Rappahannock River.

In Northern Virginia, Democrat James Webb will be elected in a landslide, the polls show. In the rest of the state, the dirt is expected to fall the other way, for Republican incumbent George Allen .

The race itself is close. Every poll shows Webb and Allen to be within a few points of each other. Basically, it's a tie.

But whichever way it goes, the stark contrast between the two Virginias remains. And not just in the Senate race. The urbanization of Northern Virginia and the region's psychological connection to Washington are contributing to a vast gulf in attitudes compared with the rest of the state.

Take the marriage amendment, for example.

In Northern Virginia, the proposed constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil unions would lose by a 13-point margin, according to a Washington Post poll taken in mid-October. Other recent polls have shown similar opposition in the region. Excluding Northern Virginia, the ban would be approved by a 20-point margin.

Or consider other issues: On transportation, Northern Virginians are more frustrated by traffic and more accepting of paying for improvements through higher taxes. The region's voters are less happy with President Bush and more likely to say that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting.

There are, of course, topics on which the state's voters agree. They give Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) a job approval rating of 77 percent, about the same as his 78 percent approval in the Washington suburbs. Job approval of Sen. John W. Warner (R) was the same -- 66 percent -- inside or outside of Northern Virginia.

But the differences stand out more than the similarities. And that could have long-range consequences, both for electoral politics and for actual governing.

Politically, future statewide candidates are going to have to dream up new strategies for winning. Gone are the days when either party could assume Virginia to be solidly conservative on such issues as guns, religion, abortion and other social concerns.

That means candidates will be forced to tailor their messages more carefully.

Last year, as Kaine and former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R) battled for the governorship, the GOP used Kaine's comments about abortion to scare voters in southwest Virginia, even as Kaine used Kilgore's position on taxes to frighten Northern Virginians.

In the next three years, potential gubernatorial candidates from both parties will canvass the state, trying to figure out how to piece together a winning electoral map. They might find it more difficult than ever to settle on a consistent message that plays well everywhere.

But beyond elections, the widening gulf in attitudes will present challenges to the state's leaders, who assemble at the beginning of each year to craft laws.

In some politically diverse states, such as California, local governments have wide latitude to pass laws that reflect the views of their constituencies. But in Virginia, where the Dillon Rule governs the relationship between the state and local governments, that freedom is severely curtailed.

That means that more of the controversial issues of the day are dealt with in the state Capitol instead of by local boards and councils.

Laws covering those divisive subjects can be easily crafted for one part of the state but might make little sense elsewhere. Take seat-belt laws. Requiring people to buckle up might make sense in Northern Virginia, but it might make less sense in small towns with one traffic light.

Likewise, voters in Fairfax and Arlington are likely to support restrictions on guns, whereas those in more rural areas will not.

If Webb defeats Allen for the Senate seat, the victory will highlight the growing rift in Virginia. But even if Allen wins, the trend is clear: Northern Virginia is changing, becoming less like the rest of the state than ever before.

People can -- and do -- joke about those differences. But they will have profound implications for the way Virginia's politics and governing are practiced for years to come." (Michael D. Shear, Virginia Notebook, The Washington Post, October 26, 2006)

Editor's Note: An index to coverage of George Allen on the Loper website may be found at http://loper.org/~george/archives/2006/Aug/925.html