"U.S. Sen. George Allen, R-Fairfax County, has gained a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Jim Webb in a new statewide poll, edging in front of Webb by 4 points, equal to the survey’s margin of error.

The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll taken for The Daily Progress and other Virginia newspapers shows Allen with the support of 47 percent of likely voters on Nov. 7 to 43 percent for Webb, 2 percent for Independent Green Gail Parker and 8 percent undecided.

The survey, taken Oct. 17-19, shows Allen 4 percentage points higher than in a late September Mason-Dixon survey and no movement for Webb since the last poll, which found 43 percent each for Allen and Webb, 12 percent undecided and 2 percent for Parker.

“It seems like Allen has weathered the storm” of controversy that stemmed from accusations that he used racial slurs as a student at the University of Virginia, said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

“Allen is still under 50 percent, so I’d call it a competitive race,” Coker said. “I think all of the racial rancor has started to subside. Most people have tuned it out at this point.”

Virginia’s Senate race is key to Republican hopes to maintain control of the U.S. Senate, Coker said.

“It looks like it’s going to come down to Virginia and Tennessee,” he said. “If Republicans can hold onto Virginia and Tennessee, they would keep control of the Senate.”

Coker said Mason-Dixon polls between Oct. 17 and Oct. 21. in key Senate race states of Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island show Democrats leading for seats in each of those states, leaving Virginia and Tennessee as the states with slight GOP leads the Republicans would have to win to ensure 50 GOP senators, a number that would maintain the party’s control with Vice President Dick Cheney ready to break ties.

Republican candidates have fallen farther behind during the past three weeks in Senate races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island and are 3 points behind, within the margin of error, in polling for races in Missouri, Montana and New Jersey, Coker said.

“Clearly, Virginia and Tennessee are the only two states now where Republicans are ahead in these swing seats,” he said.

In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker leads Democrat Harold Ford by 45 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided and 2 percent for other candidates, he said.

Most Virginia voters - 51 percent - disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, which is the most important issue cited by voters, Coker said.

“It’s still a mixed bag on Bush,” he said. Forty-three percent approve of Bush’s orchestration of the war and 6 percent are not sure. Overall, 42 percent give Bush positive job ratings while 18 percent rate his job performance as fair, 38 percent call it poor and 2 percent are undecided.

Allen still leads Webb in Virginia’s rural regions and the Richmond metropolitan area while Webb is leading in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Allen’s personal popularity is still an issue with voters. While his favorable name recognition has stopped falling and is at 42 percent, his unfavorable name recognition continued to increase, from 32 to 39 percent. Another 18 percent said they have a neutral opinion of Allen and 1 percent said they did not recognize his name.

Webb’s favorable name recognition is up slightly from September, from 31 percent to 34 percent, but his unfavorable name recognition climbed from 20 percent to 28 percent and those with a neutral opinion of him registered 33 percent, with 5 percent not recognizing his name.

Virginia voters appear divided over whether the Allen slur allegations are true.

Thirty percent of those surveyed believe the charges are true, 28 percent said they believe the charges are false and 42 percent said they are not sure.

Only 15 percent of those polled said the charges were important to their voting decision, while 83 percent indicated they are unimportant and 2 percent were not sure.

Among black voters, Webb is favored by 78 percent to 4 percent for Allen with 1 percent for Parker and 17 percent undecided.

Among white voters, Allen is favored by 55 percent to 37 percent for Webb, 2 percent for Parker and 6 percent undecided.

Democrats favor Webb by 80 percent to 8 percent for Allen, 1 percent for Parker and 11 percent undecided.

Republicans favor Allen by 90 percent to 7 percent for Webb and 3 percent undecided.

Independents are breaking slightly toward Webb, with 46 percent for the Democrat, 39 percent for Allen, 5 percent for Parker and 10 percent undecided.

“Allen is in slightly better shape than he was a few weeks ago,” Coker said. “His re-election is hardly guaranteed, as his support continues to run under 50 percent.”

By a small margin of 45 percent to 43 percent, Virginians would rather see Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate, Coker said. Another 12 percent said they are not sure which party they would like to see control the Senate." (Bob Gibson, The Daily Progress, October 24, 2006)

Editor's Note: An index to coverage of George Allen on the Loper website may be found at http://loper.org/~george/archives/2006/Aug/925.html